Piyush Goyal – Trade β Blog

What next? Seven talking points after the WTO’s 2024 Ministerial Conference

Lots to think about as WTO delegations pick up the pieces from Abu Dhabi and look ahead to the next conference in two years’ time and beyond

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED MARCH 13, 2024 | UPDATED MARCH 20, 2024

We’ve deliberately taken our time. The World Trade Organization’s 2024 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi ended almost two weeks ago, after deadlock forced it to be extended by over a day, into the early hours of March 2.

Before the conference we had warned against expecting too much. We had argued that what was going to be essential was to preserve the system. Most issues were not ripe, and the geopolitical situation meant political energy was elsewhere.

Not to cause any harm seemed to be enough to say “job done”.

Some have criticised us for being too complacent, for being satisfied with the status quo. Far from it. We were simply recognising reality.

Quite a lot has been written and said about the conference, its minor successes and the major failures to meet expectations. Here are some talking points that stand out for us. It’s time to look ahead.

New proposals stir WTO agriculture negotiations out of deep sleep

Two new radical ideas for cutting domestic subsidies breathe life into the talks. But will they lead to anything?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JUNE 24, 2023 | UPDATED JUNE 28, 2023

A year ago, persistent deadlock in the World Trade Organization’s agriculture negotiations provided the WTO’s 2022 Ministerial Conference with its biggest failure.

Since then, it’s taken the whole year for the talks to be dragged back into action, much of the hiatus spent haggling, not over substance, but over who should be the new chair — and not for the first time.

Finally, new papers discussed in meetings on June 21–22, 2023 brought negotiators back to the table to discuss seriously some of the deadlocked issues. They include two radically new approaches for limiting farm support that distorts prices and production. (See also the WTO website’s news story.)

One idea would be to set new support limits based on the value of agricultural production. The other would use complicated calculations to slash global farm support by 50%.

Whether either of them produces agreement, where almost a quarter of a century of effort has failed, remains to be seen.

Reactions in the sessions are said to have been mixed, with some enthusiasm, some lukewarm responses and some outright opposition.

“While some WTO members are pushing for resolutions or advancements on issues like domestic support and public stockholding,” Inside US Trade reported (paywalled), “others, like the US, are arguing that the membership should be more pragmatic and focus on achievable outcomes — for instance, reining in export restrictions in agriculture — according to a Geneva-based trade official familiar with agriculture negotiation sessions held this week.”

Belief in the multilateral trade system is eroding, and that spells trouble

Don’t be fooled by the smiles. The next WTO Ministerial Conference is only a year away but the atmosphere is worse than before the previous one

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 26, 2023 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Time flies. It was only last June that the World Trade Organization (WTO) emerged from a morale-boosting Ministerial Conference, hailed as a success simply because members could at least agree on what to do next, often in the vaguest possible terms, and not on everything.

They did strike a deal on curbing harmful fisheries subsidies but even that was gutted of its most important element: tackling subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing, the top priority of UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 Target 6.

The June success is already a distant memory.

WTO members achieve breakthrough, but the tough part is what happens next

It might seem churlish to draw attention to what was lacking, but the achievements that were rightly hailed are not the end of the story.

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED JUNE 30, 2022 | UPDATED JUNE 30, 2022

As a beautiful sun rose over the World Trade Organization’s lakeside headquarters in Geneva on June 17, 2022, exhausted delegates sealed a package of decisions and declarations that would give the beleaguered WTO new direction for the next couple of years.

Much has already been written about the achievement of the 12–17 June WTO Ministerial Conference, after it was extended by almost two days of sometimes chaotic round-the-clock bargaining.

Most of the analysis focuses on what was achieved, often with a sense of relief that the WTO was back on track, mixed with a warning that much still needs to be done.

Perhaps the biggest success was that a package was agreed by ministers, including an Outcome Document — which the previous ministerial conference failed to do.

Often missing is recognition of how hard it was to achieve this limited outcome.