Draft text – Trade β Blog

Scoring the Ministerial Conference results in the WTO director-general’s ‘half-full’ glass

Is it right to judge the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference by counting the decisions as if they each had equal significance? This is how we’d score the 10 that were agreed and some others that weren’t

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED APRIL 5, 2024 | UPDATED APRIL 23, 2024

Judging by the WTO website’s coverage, the World Trade Organization’s Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference was a success, albeit a qualified one, at least in WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s assessments. Is this credible?

“Despite the more than challenging context, we concluded [the Ministerial Conference] with 10 consensus multilateral ministerial decisions and declarations,” she told ambassadors to the WTO on March 21. “That’s why I personally see the glass as half full.”

We, however, conclude that the glass is quite a lot less than half full.

Despite the more than challenging context, we concluded … with 10 consensus multilateral ministerial decisions and declarations. That’s why I personally see the glass as half full
— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

We looked closely at what was agreed in Abu Dhabi and what wasn’t, and we scored each issue. The results are below, a bit like the scorecards we produced after the last Ministerial Conference in Geneva in 2022, but slightly different.

And we believe over-selling the result may be unhelpful because it may encourage complacency. Members can and should do better. And they should start working on that now.

What next? Seven talking points after the WTO’s 2024 Ministerial Conference

Lots to think about as WTO delegations pick up the pieces from Abu Dhabi and look ahead to the next conference in two years’ time and beyond

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED MARCH 13, 2024 | UPDATED MARCH 20, 2024

We’ve deliberately taken our time. The World Trade Organization’s 2024 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi ended almost two weeks ago, after deadlock forced it to be extended by over a day, into the early hours of March 2.

Before the conference we had warned against expecting too much. We had argued that what was going to be essential was to preserve the system. Most issues were not ripe, and the geopolitical situation meant political energy was elsewhere.

Not to cause any harm seemed to be enough to say “job done”.

Some have criticised us for being too complacent, for being satisfied with the status quo. Far from it. We were simply recognising reality.

Quite a lot has been written and said about the conference, its minor successes and the major failures to meet expectations. Here are some talking points that stand out for us. It’s time to look ahead.

Definitely. Maybe. Unlikely. Who knows? Issues on the WTO conference agenda

We’d better be prepared for little or nothing substantial when ministers meet in Abu Dhabi at the end of the month

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 21, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 27, 2024

Two large but stubborn members may prevent ministers from agreeing on anything important at the World Trade Organization’s upcoming Ministerial Conference, and so the cynics are circling with doom-laden prophecies that “the WTO” is likely to fail again.

One is India, which is demanding the impossible in agriculture and threatening to block several other issues supported by a majority of WTO members. The other is the US, which is also — but more quietly — defying a majority of members on appeals in WTO dispute settlement.

Between them, they could ensure that the February 26–29 meeting in Abu Dhabi becomes yet another where WTO trade ministers kick dozens of cans down the road.

Cynics circle as another WTO Ministerial Conference heads for small pickings

Given the challenging circumstances, system preservation may be the most important outcome

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 21, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 27, 2024

The cynics are circling the World Trade Organization’s upcoming Ministerial Conference with doom-laden prophecies that the “WTO” is likely to fail, again.

The cans that were kicked down the road in Geneva in 2022 are now supposed to produce content in Abu Dhabi in 2024. The prospects of that are sobering.

But the WTO is not just its Ministerial Conferences, and the purpose of these conferences is not merely concluding new agreements. Given the challenging circumstances, system preservation may be the most important outcome.

Fisheries subsidies draft published for WTO Ministerial Conference

But with many issues unresolved, the chair says officials will continue to work on it before and during the Abu Dhabi conference

UPDATE: On April 12, 2024, chair Einar Gunnarsson circulated a copy of an “advance draft” as emailed to ministers in the early hours of March 1, 2024, close to the end of the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference. His accompanying explanation includes a detailed account of what happened at the conference.

Paragraphs 56 to 59 of the chair’s explanation describe further convergence after that draft was circulated, although some issues remained unsettled. It was the further revisions that Fiji and Vanuatu wanted discussed in the final plenary sessions at the conference, sparking a furious outburst of objections from India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. As Gunnarsson says, work will continue.

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED FEBRUARY 19, 2024 | UPDATED APRIL 13, 2024

The fisheries subsidies draft for the World Trade Organization’s February 26–29, 2024 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi was published on February 16 along with a detailed explanation by the chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland.

“All members are very aware that next week, the eyes of the world will be on us,” Gunnarsson told journalists on February 19. (His full statement is here.)

“I believe that we have every possibility to deliver a meaningful outcome and bring these very long-running fisheries subsidies negotiations to a close at last. I will do everything in my power to help that chance become a reality.”

Achieving that is not guaranteed, and work continues in the final days before the conference to resolve at least some of the remaining differences.

(The draft and the explanation are presented side by side here.)

Chair issues new draft before final fisheries subsidies month

Agreement by February 29 depends on four weeks of intensive talks. Can members settle their many differences?

See also:
Updates, timeline and links | all articles tagged “fisheries subsidies”
Technical note on subsidies for fisheries

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JANUARY 2, 2024 | UPDATED JANUARY 13, 2024

A new draft and explanatory note on the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement’s “missing piece” was circulated to members on December 21, 2023, the World Trade Organization’s final working day of the year.

The chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland, has given WTO members four weeks from January 15 to February 9, 2024 to try to agree on a final version, which they would submit to the February 26–29 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi.

SUMMARY

Too long, don’t want to read? If you just want the essence, stick with this SUMMARY section, which is about 15 short paragraphs. Continue beyond that if you want the DETAILS. Right at the end are the full texts. This article is long because a lot remains to be sorted out. The chair’s explanation is a seven-page document.

UPCOMING KEY FISH DATES
Over the New Year — Some consultations possible, but generally a break
January 15–February 9 — “fish month” of intensive talks
February 14 — final General Council meeting before the Ministerial Conference
February 15–25 — delegations’ preparations: coordinating with capitals and ministers, travelling to Abu Dhabi
February 26–29 — Ministerial Conference

For the first time since he floated a trial text in September, Gunnarsson released this version publicly.

The chair’s draft and his accompanying explanation are reproduced side by side below. An explanation of the details is also below. (The original pdf format of the draft is here and the accompanying explanation is here).

The chair’s detailed explanation shows that differences still have to be bridged throughout the text, although it remains to be seen where countries’ real red lines are, and whether they can compromise at the last minute. In 2022 they still couldn’t, 21 years after the talks were launched.

What’s left to resolve in WTO fisheries subsidies talks after deadline missed

The fate of the talks now rests on intensive negotiations in four weeks from mid-January with some consultations before then. Are the differences still too numerous to settle in that time?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED DECEMBER 12, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 13, 2023

The chair of the World Trade Organization’s fisheries subsidies negotiations and Iceland’s ambassador, Einar Gunnarsson, admitted on on December 8, 2023, that there would not be an agreed text by the end of the year, despite a commitment from senior officials six weeks earlier that there would.

He and WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told ambassadors at the end of the final “fish week” of the year that they still hoped that the differences could be settled by the Ministerial Conference in February next year — although the next talks are now not scheduled until mid-January.

They noted that delegates showed they were determined to reach agreement, and were encouraged by various proposed amendments to the chair’s September 4 draft designed to bridge the differences.

Texts on the table (details below) show that members diverge on a wide range of topics, particularly whether the biggest players should face extra scrutiny and if so how they would be identified, and the details of exemptions for developing countries.

Chair’s draft accepted, haggling over WTO fisheries subsidies text begins

Can negotiators strike a deal this winter?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED SEPTEMBER 22, 2023 | UPDATED SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

World Trade Organization (WTO) members have agreed to proceed with the text drafted by the fisheries subsidies talks’ chair as a basis for their negotiations as they strive to reach agreement on it by February 2024.

This final phase of the negotiations aims to break the deadlock that left the 2022 Fisheries Subsidies Agreement incomplete. WTO members still have to agree on provisions to discipline — and in some cases outlaw — subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing.

Their target for reaching agreement is the next (13th) WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi next February.

Whether a breakthrough can be achieved after decades of deadlock remains to be seen. Disciplining subsidies contributing to overcapacity and overfishing is a key part of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14, target 6, whose 2020 deadline for the WTO talks is fading into the distant past.

New draft starts text-based rush for WTO fish subsidies’ ‘missing piece’

The text is on subsidies contributing to overcapacity and overfishing, with an accompanying explanation from the chair. Members want to complete the deal by February 2024

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED SEPTEMBER 8, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 10, 2023

The chair of the World Trade Organization’s fisheries subsidies negotiations and Iceland’s ambassador, Einar Gunnarsson, circulated a new draft text on September 4, 2023, on disciplines for subsidies contributing to overcapacity and overfishing — the “missing piece” in the June 2022 agreement.

Those disciplines are a key part of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14, target 6, whose 2020 deadline for the WTO talks had already been missed.

The new draft allows this phase of the negotiations to focus on a text rather than more general principles. Gunnarsson introduced it to WTO ambassadors at the start of his fifth “fish week” on September 18, 2023.

WTO environment talks — official text with 70 members: China, US, Israel too

The post-Ministerial Conference “structured discussion” would only be among some members and would, follow a proposed timetable.

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED NOVEMBER 5, 2021 | UPDATED DECEMBER 12, 2021

On November 4, the US reportedly announced it was joining other World Trade Organization (WTO) members in calling for “structured discussions” on trade, environment and sustainability — a fortnight after China reportedly did the same (on October 22).

This was confirmed on November 15, when the participants released the text as a public statement for the November 30–December 3 WTO Ministerial conference. By then Israel had also joined, bringing total participants to 57 WTO members. On December 3 a revision was circulated adding 13 new participants bringing the total to 70, but with no change to the main content.

With so much attention being paid to environmental issues, not least during the fortnight of the UN Climate Change conference in Glasgow, agreeing on an innocuous text like this should be straightforward.

But it isn’t. Why? And why isn’t this automatically part of the work of the WTO’s Trade and Environment Committee?