African Group – Trade β Blog

Cynics circle as another WTO Ministerial Conference heads for small pickings

Given the challenging circumstances, system preservation may be the most important outcome

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 21, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 27, 2024

The cynics are circling the World Trade Organization’s upcoming Ministerial Conference with doom-laden prophecies that the “WTO” is likely to fail, again.

The cans that were kicked down the road in Geneva in 2022 are now supposed to produce content in Abu Dhabi in 2024. The prospects of that are sobering.

But the WTO is not just its Ministerial Conferences, and the purpose of these conferences is not merely concluding new agreements. Given the challenging circumstances, system preservation may be the most important outcome.

Chair issues new draft before final fisheries subsidies month

Agreement by February 29 depends on four weeks of intensive talks. Can members settle their many differences?

See also:
Updates, timeline and links | all articles tagged “fisheries subsidies”
Technical note on subsidies for fisheries

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JANUARY 2, 2024 | UPDATED JANUARY 13, 2024

A new draft and explanatory note on the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement’s “missing piece” was circulated to members on December 21, 2023, the World Trade Organization’s final working day of the year.

The chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland, has given WTO members four weeks from January 15 to February 9, 2024 to try to agree on a final version, which they would submit to the February 26–29 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi.

SUMMARY

Too long, don’t want to read? If you just want the essence, stick with this SUMMARY section, which is about 15 short paragraphs. Continue beyond that if you want the DETAILS. Right at the end are the full texts. This article is long because a lot remains to be sorted out. The chair’s explanation is a seven-page document.

UPCOMING KEY FISH DATES
Over the New Year — Some consultations possible, but generally a break
January 15–February 9 — “fish month” of intensive talks
February 14 — final General Council meeting before the Ministerial Conference
February 15–25 — delegations’ preparations: coordinating with capitals and ministers, travelling to Abu Dhabi
February 26–29 — Ministerial Conference

For the first time since he floated a trial text in September, Gunnarsson released this version publicly.

The chair’s draft and his accompanying explanation are reproduced side by side below. An explanation of the details is also below. (The original pdf format of the draft is here and the accompanying explanation is here).

The chair’s detailed explanation shows that differences still have to be bridged throughout the text, although it remains to be seen where countries’ real red lines are, and whether they can compromise at the last minute. In 2022 they still couldn’t, 21 years after the talks were launched.

What’s left to resolve in WTO fisheries subsidies talks after deadline missed

The fate of the talks now rests on intensive negotiations in four weeks from mid-January with some consultations before then. Are the differences still too numerous to settle in that time?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED DECEMBER 12, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 13, 2023

The chair of the World Trade Organization’s fisheries subsidies negotiations and Iceland’s ambassador, Einar Gunnarsson, admitted on on December 8, 2023, that there would not be an agreed text by the end of the year, despite a commitment from senior officials six weeks earlier that there would.

He and WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told ambassadors at the end of the final “fish week” of the year that they still hoped that the differences could be settled by the Ministerial Conference in February next year — although the next talks are now not scheduled until mid-January.

They noted that delegates showed they were determined to reach agreement, and were encouraged by various proposed amendments to the chair’s September 4 draft designed to bridge the differences.

Texts on the table (details below) show that members diverge on a wide range of topics, particularly whether the biggest players should face extra scrutiny and if so how they would be identified, and the details of exemptions for developing countries.

India ramps up rhetoric on farm support before major WTO meeting

The chances of agreement by the February 2024 Ministerial Conference are slim if not impossible

See also
the previous meeting, an explanation of the issue
and the WTO website’s news story on the whole meeting
Agriculture negotiators discuss new proposals submitted by WTO members

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED OCTOBER 21, 2023 | UPDATED NOVEMBER 4, 2023

India has accused its critics in the World Trade Organization (WTO) of “arrogance” and contempt in opposing its position on developing countries using subsidies to purchase rice and other produce into food security stocks.

In a meeting of the WTO’s agriculture negotiations on October 19, 2023, India said, “gone are the days when we were the discipline taker and we had no knowledge and wisdom to talk about a subject that concerns us,” according to a trade official in Geneva.

India’s heightened rhetoric came four days before senior officials from capitals were due to meet in Geneva on October 23–24. The officials will attempt to develop meaningful outcomes for the next WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi, February 2024, including on agriculture and food security.

India said that unless its critics change their “mindset”, they will prevent an agreement being reached at the Ministerial Conference.

As in the previous meeting on October 2, this session of the agriculture negotiations focused mainly on the use of government-supported prices to buy into food security stocks.

The issue is nicknamed “public stockholding” (PSH). But the name is misleading because WTO rules do not prevent stockholding. They only discipline subsidised procurement. Even that is allowed, so long as the developing country stays within its subsidy limit, usually 10% of the value of production.

New proposals stir WTO agriculture negotiations out of deep sleep

Two new radical ideas for cutting domestic subsidies breathe life into the talks. But will they lead to anything?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JUNE 24, 2023 | UPDATED JUNE 28, 2023

A year ago, persistent deadlock in the World Trade Organization’s agriculture negotiations provided the WTO’s 2022 Ministerial Conference with its biggest failure.

Since then, it’s taken the whole year for the talks to be dragged back into action, much of the hiatus spent haggling, not over substance, but over who should be the new chair — and not for the first time.

Finally, new papers discussed in meetings on June 21–22, 2023 brought negotiators back to the table to discuss seriously some of the deadlocked issues. They include two radically new approaches for limiting farm support that distorts prices and production. (See also the WTO website’s news story.)

One idea would be to set new support limits based on the value of agricultural production. The other would use complicated calculations to slash global farm support by 50%.

Whether either of them produces agreement, where almost a quarter of a century of effort has failed, remains to be seen.

Reactions in the sessions are said to have been mixed, with some enthusiasm, some lukewarm responses and some outright opposition.

“While some WTO members are pushing for resolutions or advancements on issues like domestic support and public stockholding,” Inside US Trade reported (paywalled), “others, like the US, are arguing that the membership should be more pragmatic and focus on achievable outcomes — for instance, reining in export restrictions in agriculture — according to a Geneva-based trade official familiar with agriculture negotiation sessions held this week.”

UPDATES: expanding the WTO intellectual property waiver for COVID-19

Latest developments with links to some key documents and news

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By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED OCTOBER 4, 2022 | UPDATED AS INDICATED

The waiver on patent protection for COVID-19 vaccines was agreed at the WTO Ministerial Conference on June 17, 2022. The text with brief explanations is here. The waiver is not an obligation. Countries can choose to suspend certain patent rights if they want.

Much of the work after the Ministerial Conference results from a provision for WTO members to decide within six months (by December 17, 2022) whether or not to expand the waiver to include COVID-19 tests and treatments:

“No later than six months from the date of this Decision, Members will decide on its extension to cover the production and supply of COVID-19 diagnostics and therapeutics”

Background: The original (revised) proposal; the debate; the proposed compromise and analysis.

Updates on the latest developments will be added here, with links to new documents and news items. That will include any notifications from countries changing their laws to apply the waiver. So far there are none.

Key events

October 31, 2023 — deadlock continues in the intellectual property council after an information session with stakeholders
October 23–24, 2023 — discussed by capital-based senior officials: positions are unchanged
March and May, 2023 — discussed in the General Council but no new deadline set
December 20, 2022 — the General Council agrees on postponing the deadline with no date set, but to be reconsidered in the Spring
December 19, 2022 — the General Council postpones a decision on postponing the deadline
December 17, 2022 — deadline for expansion decision missed, so far no country has moved to use the vaccine patent waiver agreed in June
December 16, 2022 — formal meeting: chair’s draft binned, replaced by short paragraph postponing the deadline
December 7, 2022 — chair’s draft factual report circulated
December 6, 2022 — informal meeting discusses proponents’ draft and postponing deadline
December 5–6, 2022 — US announces it will need time to consult stakeholders
November 2, 2022 — informal meeting, with members’ positions on expanding the waiver to tests and treatments crystallised into three groups
July 6, 2022 — first meeting after the vaccine patent waiver decision, followed by stock-taking and informal meetings

(TRIPS = trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights, the official description of intellectual property issues that are discussed in the WTO — they should be “trade-related” issues)

8 reasons why countries disagree over a WTO intellectual property waiver

What the countries are saying — and it’s more than just ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the waiver

UPDATES

In February it was “no sign of a breakthrough”. By mid-March there were signs
More in: ‘Quad’ raise hopes of a COVID-19 deal and revival for the beleaguered WTO

The waiver was agreed at the Ministerial Conference on June 17, 2022. The final text is here.

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED FEBRUARY 22, 2022 | UPDATED NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The deadlock in the World Trade Organization (WTO) over a proposal to waive intellectual property protection related to COVID-19 is now well into its second year with no sign of a breakthrough.

India and South Africa first made the proposal in October 2020. They produced a revised draft the following May, saying it was based on discussions in the months in between, but the revision produced little change in positions.

The proposal would temporarily waive countries’ obligations under WTO rules to protect some types of intellectual property, for products used to deal with COVID-19.

That’s the general idea. Every part of it is debated.

WTO farm talks head into 2022 with lots of ‘will’ but not much ‘way’

The fate of the chair’s draft lies in the balance as members declare commitment to the talks but remain as divided as ever

UPDATE
May 19, 2022 informal negotiations meeting: in preparation for the re-scheduled Ministerial Conference: Twitter thread (food security, export restrictions, public stockholding, agriculture negotiations as a whole).

March 21, 2022 negotiations meeting: Twitter thread, WTO news story, chair’s statement on consultations (public stockholding, special safeguard mechanism, agriculture negotiations as a whole, including a proposed session on food security)

May 31, 2022: new draft texts circulated ahead of the June 12–15 re-scheduled Ministerial Conference.

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JANUARY 25, 2022 | UPDATED JUNE 8, 2022

WTO agriculture negotiations started the year 2022 with members taking stock of where the talks were and how they might proceed, after a year of hard and intensive work that produced new proposals, but no change in fundamental, deadlocked positions.

The momentum had been created as negotiators strove to present common ground for the Ministerial Conference, scheduled for November 30–December 3, 2021, but postponed because of travel and other restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

An informal negotiation meeting on January 24, 2022, cast doubt on the fate of the only attempt to reflect the current state of the talks in a single text, according to a trade official in Geneva — “to be or not to be”, the official said.