Einar Gunnarsson – Trade β Blog

Definitely. Maybe. Unlikely. Who knows? Issues on the WTO conference agenda

We’d better be prepared for little or nothing substantial when ministers meet in Abu Dhabi at the end of the month

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 21, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 27, 2024

Two large but stubborn members may prevent ministers from agreeing on anything important at the World Trade Organization’s upcoming Ministerial Conference, and so the cynics are circling with doom-laden prophecies that “the WTO” is likely to fail again.

One is India, which is demanding the impossible in agriculture and threatening to block several other issues supported by a majority of WTO members. The other is the US, which is also — but more quietly — defying a majority of members on appeals in WTO dispute settlement.

Between them, they could ensure that the February 26–29 meeting in Abu Dhabi becomes yet another where WTO trade ministers kick dozens of cans down the road.

Fisheries subsidies draft published for WTO Ministerial Conference

But with many issues unresolved, the chair says officials will continue to work on it before and during the Abu Dhabi conference

UPDATE: On April 12, 2024, chair Einar Gunnarsson circulated a copy of an “advance draft” as emailed to ministers in the early hours of March 1, 2024, close to the end of the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference. His accompanying explanation includes a detailed account of what happened at the conference.

Paragraphs 56 to 59 of the chair’s explanation describe further convergence after that draft was circulated, although some issues remained unsettled. It was the further revisions that Fiji and Vanuatu wanted discussed in the final plenary sessions at the conference, sparking a furious outburst of objections from India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. As Gunnarsson says, work will continue.

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED FEBRUARY 19, 2024 | UPDATED APRIL 13, 2024

The fisheries subsidies draft for the World Trade Organization’s February 26–29, 2024 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi was published on February 16 along with a detailed explanation by the chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland.

“All members are very aware that next week, the eyes of the world will be on us,” Gunnarsson told journalists on February 19. (His full statement is here.)

“I believe that we have every possibility to deliver a meaningful outcome and bring these very long-running fisheries subsidies negotiations to a close at last. I will do everything in my power to help that chance become a reality.”

Achieving that is not guaranteed, and work continues in the final days before the conference to resolve at least some of the remaining differences.

(The draft and the explanation are presented side by side here.)

What the fisheries subsidies talks’ chair reported to WTO ambassadors

Iceland ambassador Einar Gunnarsson’s report to the final General Council meeting before the 2024 Ministerial Conference, after a busy ‘Fish Month’

SEE ALSO
Updates on the fisheries subsidies talks. And all stories tagged “fisheries subsidies”

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED FEBRUARY 16, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 16, 2024

Iceland’s ambassador Einar Gunnarsson, who chairs the World Trade Organization’s fisheries subsidies negotiations is expected to circulate on Monday (February 19, 2024) a new draft on curbing subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing.

The draft will be the final version for the February 26–29 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi (“MC13”). At the previous conference in Geneva, June 2022, WTO ministers set the Abu Dhabi conference as the deadline for concluding the negotiations.

The draft is nicknamed “Fish 2” because it covers provisions that could not be agreed and were therefore dropped from the 2022 Fisheries Subsidies Agreement (“Fish 1”).

The new draft will draw on a “Fish Month” of negotiations that began in mid-January. This is Gunnarsson’s report to WTO ambassadors on the talks and on his intentions for the final draft, delivered on February 14, at the final General Council meeting before the Ministerial Conference.

Chair upbeat about members’ approach to final WTO fish subsidies push

Negotiators’ ‘constructive tone and well-organized and business-like participation in the meeting left me with an increased sense of optimism’, said Einar Gunnarsson

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JANUARY 16, 2024 | UPDATED JANUARY 16, 2024

The start of the final “fish month” before the Word Trade Organization’s Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi has been promising, Einar Gunnarsson, Iceland’s ambassador who chairs the WTO talks, said today (January 16, 2024).

“Overall, the positive tone and constructive spirit with which members engaged demonstrated their continued commitment to conclude the second wave of negotiations by [the Ministerial Conference],” he said. (His full statement is below, the WTO website news story is here.)

Gunnarsson was speaking to journalists after opening the four weeks of talks the previous day.

The aim is to have a clean, agreed text by February 9. This would be sent, via the February 14 General Council meeting to the February 26–29 Ministerial Conference.

Chair issues new draft before final fisheries subsidies month

Agreement by February 29 depends on four weeks of intensive talks. Can members settle their many differences?

See also:
Updates, timeline and links | all articles tagged “fisheries subsidies”
Technical note on subsidies for fisheries

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED JANUARY 2, 2024 | UPDATED JANUARY 13, 2024

A new draft and explanatory note on the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement’s “missing piece” was circulated to members on December 21, 2023, the World Trade Organization’s final working day of the year.

The chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland, has given WTO members four weeks from January 15 to February 9, 2024 to try to agree on a final version, which they would submit to the February 26–29 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi.

SUMMARY

Too long, don’t want to read? If you just want the essence, stick with this SUMMARY section, which is about 15 short paragraphs. Continue beyond that if you want the DETAILS. Right at the end are the full texts. This article is long because a lot remains to be sorted out. The chair’s explanation is a seven-page document.

UPCOMING KEY FISH DATES
Over the New Year — Some consultations possible, but generally a break
January 15–February 9 — “fish month” of intensive talks
February 14 — final General Council meeting before the Ministerial Conference
February 15–25 — delegations’ preparations: coordinating with capitals and ministers, travelling to Abu Dhabi
February 26–29 — Ministerial Conference

For the first time since he floated a trial text in September, Gunnarsson released this version publicly.

The chair’s draft and his accompanying explanation are reproduced side by side below. An explanation of the details is also below. (The original pdf format of the draft is here and the accompanying explanation is here).

The chair’s detailed explanation shows that differences still have to be bridged throughout the text, although it remains to be seen where countries’ real red lines are, and whether they can compromise at the last minute. In 2022 they still couldn’t, 21 years after the talks were launched.

What’s left to resolve in WTO fisheries subsidies talks after deadline missed

The fate of the talks now rests on intensive negotiations in four weeks from mid-January with some consultations before then. Are the differences still too numerous to settle in that time?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED DECEMBER 12, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 13, 2023

The chair of the World Trade Organization’s fisheries subsidies negotiations and Iceland’s ambassador, Einar Gunnarsson, admitted on on December 8, 2023, that there would not be an agreed text by the end of the year, despite a commitment from senior officials six weeks earlier that there would.

He and WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told ambassadors at the end of the final “fish week” of the year that they still hoped that the differences could be settled by the Ministerial Conference in February next year — although the next talks are now not scheduled until mid-January.

They noted that delegates showed they were determined to reach agreement, and were encouraged by various proposed amendments to the chair’s September 4 draft designed to bridge the differences.

Texts on the table (details below) show that members diverge on a wide range of topics, particularly whether the biggest players should face extra scrutiny and if so how they would be identified, and the details of exemptions for developing countries.

No WTO fisheries subsidies text this year, negotiations chair concedes

Talks face a rough winter as conclusion at next WTO Ministerial Conference looks less likely

See also:
Technical note on subsidies for fisheries,
Talks face tough week as India seeks to reopen 2022 deal,
Updates, timeline and links and all articles tagged “fisheries subsidies”

And this update of the pre-Ministerial Conference “fish month” and the differences that need to be bridged: “What’s left to resolve in WTO fisheries subsidies talks after deadline missed”

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED DECEMBER 8, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 12, 2023

Reaching agreement on a World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies text will not be possible by the end of the year after all, Einar Gunnarsson, Iceland’s ambassador and the talks’ chair, conceded at the end of the eighth “fish week” of the year.

With only about six working weeks left and a long list of differences to resolve, WTO members look increasingly unlikely to meet their target for a final agreement at the next WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi in February.

Gunnarsson will not be able to submit a text for the year’s final meetings of the Trade Negotiations Committee and General Council next week.

We’re going to deliver this
— WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

The WTO then closes down for Christmas and the New Year, leaving only January and the beginning of February to settle the many outstanding issues before the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference. Ministerial Conferences are not normally able to settle more than a handful of deadlocked topics.

See this update on the schedule and the “fish month”,
and details of the differences that need sorting out

Speaking to ambassadors in the week’s wrap-up session on December 8, 2023, Gunnarsson and WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala were still optimistic that the deal can be struck in time.

WTO fish talks complete draft read-through with little real negotiation

Countries differ on extra scrutiny for big subsidisers, reopening the 2022 agreement, special treatment for developing countries with exclusions for China and others

See also:
Technical note on subsidies for fisheries,
“Talks face tough week as India seeks to reopen 2022 deal”
“Updates, timeline and links” since Dec 2020,
all articles tagged “fisheries subsidies”

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED OCTOBER 16, 2023 | UPDATED OCTOBER 16, 2023

World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiators completed their read-through of the chair’s draft on subsidies contributing to overfishing and overcapacity in the week ending October 13, 2023, but hard bargaining to resolve some wide differences still lies ahead.

WTO members completed their line-by-line reading of the 5-page, 4-article draft circulated by the talks’ chair, Iceland’s ambassador Einar Gunnarsson in early September.

The many proposals for amending the draft are being compiled into “comprehensive tables of attributed suggestions for all the provisions in that document” so that they can be compared, he told negotiators.

“In short, it is now the right time to enter into full negotiating mode,” Gunnarsson urged them, indicating that proper negotiations have not yet begun.

WTO fish talks face tough week as India seeks to reopen 2022 deal

On the eve of another ‘fish week’, India’s paper shows how wide the gaps are

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED OCTOBER 6, 2023 | UPDATED OCTOBER 16, 2023

World Trade Organization negotiations on fisheries subsidies resume for another week on Monday (October 9, 2023), with delegates starting to negotiate the chair’s draft, line by line, amid signs that the going will be tough.

A paper from India circulated at the start of the previous “fish week” (September 18–22) is said to have caused dismay among some negotiators apparently because it sought to reopen provisions that had already been agreed at the June 2022 WTO Ministerial Conference.

The paper also reiterates India’s position in the main issue that is now being negotiated, and one that has been deadlocked for years — subsidies that contribute to overfishing and overcapacity. It differs considerably from the draft that the chair circulated a month ago on this subject, indicating how much work negotiators face.

Chair’s draft accepted, haggling over WTO fisheries subsidies text begins

Can negotiators strike a deal this winter?

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED SEPTEMBER 22, 2023 | UPDATED SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

World Trade Organization (WTO) members have agreed to proceed with the text drafted by the fisheries subsidies talks’ chair as a basis for their negotiations as they strive to reach agreement on it by February 2024.

This final phase of the negotiations aims to break the deadlock that left the 2022 Fisheries Subsidies Agreement incomplete. WTO members still have to agree on provisions to discipline — and in some cases outlaw — subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing.

Their target for reaching agreement is the next (13th) WTO Ministerial Conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi next February.

Whether a breakthrough can be achieved after decades of deadlock remains to be seen. Disciplining subsidies contributing to overcapacity and overfishing is a key part of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 14, target 6, whose 2020 deadline for the WTO talks is fading into the distant past.