WTO farm talks seek fresh thinking without losing everything

PREVIOUS STORIES
Seven talking points after the WTO’s 2024 Ministerial Conference
Chair’s draft pushes WTO farm talks deadlines back to next conference
‘Mission impossible’ and ‘mission essential’ collide in WTO farm talks
See also all stories on this topic (tagged “agriculture negotiations”)

---

Posted by Peter Ungphakorn
APRIL 21, 2024 | UPDATED APRIL 21, 2024

Negotiators in the World Trade Organization’s farm talks broadly agree that a new approach is needed to revive the talks after they failed completely at the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference, but they differ on whether to tackle the entire subject or focus on priority areas.

On the table in the April 16, 2024 meeting was a proposal from Brazil for a decision by the General Council in July. This would effectively turn the scrapped draft from Abu Dhabi into a postponed decision, while removing the no longer available option of agreeing on over-the-limit subsidies in food stockpiling (“PSH”) at the Ministerial Conference.

The WTO’s General Council has the power to take decisions on behalf of its Ministerial Conferences.

In a separate process, WTO members also agreed on a non-binding document on food security, including export restrictions, also a binned agricultural text in Abu Dhabi.

Definitely. Maybe. Unlikely. Who knows? Issues on the WTO conference agenda

SEE ALSO
The big-picture: Cynics circle as another WTO Ministerial Conference heads for small pickings

---

By Peter Ungphakorn and Robert Wolfe
POSTED FEBRUARY 21, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 27, 2024

Two large but stubborn members may prevent ministers from agreeing on anything important at the World Trade Organization’s upcoming Ministerial Conference, and so the cynics are circling with doom-laden prophecies that “the WTO” is likely to fail again.

One is India, which is demanding the impossible in agriculture and threatening to block several other issues supported by a majority of WTO members. The other is the US, which is also — but more quietly — defying a majority of members on appeals in WTO dispute settlement.

Between them, they could ensure that the February 26–29 meeting in Abu Dhabi becomes yet another where WTO trade ministers kick dozens of cans down the road.

Fisheries subsidies draft published for WTO Ministerial Conference

SEE ALSO
Text: The draft sent to the 2024 WTO Ministerial Conference
Chair upbeat about members’ approach to final WTO fish subsidies push
Chair issues new draft before final fisheries subsidies month
Updates, timeline and links
AND
All articles tagged “fisheries subsidies” | Technical note on subsidies for fisheries

---

UPDATE: On April 12, 2024, chair Einar Gunnarsson circulated a copy of an “advance draft” as emailed to ministers in the early hours of March 1, 2024, close to the end of the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference. His accompanying explanation includes a detailed account of what happened at the conference.

Paragraphs 56 to 59 of the chair’s explanation describe further convergence after that draft was circulated, although some issues remained unsettled. It was the further revisions that Fiji and Vanuatu wanted discussed in the final plenary sessions at the conference, sparking a furious outburst of objections from India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. As Gunnarsson says, work will continue.

---

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED FEBRUARY 19, 2024 | UPDATED APRIL 13, 2024

The fisheries subsidies draft for the World Trade Organization’s February 26–29, 2024 Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi was published on February 16 along with a detailed explanation by the chair, Ambassador Einar Gunnarsson of Iceland.

“All members are very aware that next week, the eyes of the world will be on us,” Gunnarsson told journalists on February 19. (His full statement is here.)

“I believe that we have every possibility to deliver a meaningful outcome and bring these very long-running fisheries subsidies negotiations to a close at last. I will do everything in my power to help that chance become a reality.”

Achieving that is not guaranteed, and work continues in the final days before the conference to resolve at least some of the remaining differences.

(The draft and the explanation are presented side by side here.)

Chair’s draft pushes WTO farm talks deadlines back to next conference

PREVIOUS STORY
‘Mission impossible’ and ‘mission essential’ collide in WTO farm talks

SEE ALSO
WTO ministers’ meeting — no interaction, no movement, just speeches
Texts: state of play in WTO farm talks and the crisis-meeting invitation
and all stories on this topic (tagged “food stockholding”)

---

UPDATE: The draft prepared for the February 26–29, 2024 Ministerial Conference was circulated on February 16. It still pushed the deadlines back to the next conference, but with options throughout: members “shall” agree by then or they “agree to work towards” the target.

The deadlock remained over whether price support in food security stockpiling (PSH) should be a stand-alone decision at this conference or resolved with all the other topics by the next one.

See the full update below

---

Posted by Peter Ungphakorn
FEBRUARY 5, 2024 | UPDATED FEBRUARY 18, 2024

World Trade Organization agriculture negotiators are spending the first two weeks of February scrutinising a draft text for the WTO’s upcoming Ministerial Conference.

In a meeting on January 30, 2024 they accepted the draft as the document to work on for the February 26–29 conference in Abu Dhabi — the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference, called “MC13” by insiders.

It was prepared by the talks’ chair, Ambassador Alparslan Acarsoy of Türkiye.

The 5-page draft is detailed, but for most issues it postpones any resolution until the Ministerial Conference after Abu Dhabi — “MC14” — normally within two years.

However, one issue still threatens to sink the whole effort. This is about finding a long-term solution for the present short term fix for over-the-limit subsidies used to buy into food security stocks (explained here).

Members disagree on whether this should be a single-issue decision or part of a package covering the whole of domestic support. (More below.)

A WTO website news story summarises its content in detail.

‘Mission impossible’ and ‘mission essential’ collide in WTO farm talks

SEE ALSO
WTO ministers’ meeting — no interaction, no movement, just speeches
Texts: state of play in WTO farm talks and the crisis-meeting invitation
and all stories on this topic (tagged “food stockholding”)

---

Posted by Peter Ungphakorn
JANUARY 17, 2024 | UPDATED JANUARY 18, 2024

The US, EU and the majority of the Cairns Group told fellow agriculture negotiators at the World Trade Organization yesterday (January 16) that a stand-alone decision on relaxing rules on food security stocks procured with higher than permitted subsidies will not be possible at next month’s WTO Ministerial Conference.

The writing had been on the wall for some time. In this meeting, according to sources, the US seems to have taken the lead, in declaring that deep divisions among members cannot be resolved and therefore a consensus decision at the Abu Dhabi conference will be impossible.

The US reaction is said to have come after India sought to “refresh members’ memory” by recalling mandates from previous years.

The purpose for India and its allies would be to find a permanent solution to replace the present temporary fix for when developing countries exceed their domestic support entitlements through purchases into food security stocks at subsidised prices.

WTO ministers’ meeting — no interaction, no movement, just speeches

SEE ALSO
Ministers preparing for WTO crisis meeting told they need to compromise and
Texts: state of play in WTO farm talks and the crisis-meeting invitation

---

Posted by Peter Ungphakorn
DECEMBER 1, 2023 | UPDATED DECEMBER 5, 2023

The supposed “crisis” meeting of about 25 World Trade Organization ministers on November 28, 2023 showed no sign of breaking the deadlock in the WTO agriculture negotiations.

With barely two working months to go members now face the real risk of no outcome at all on agriculture at the February 2024 Ministerial Conference.

According to sources, the three-hour online meeting consisted only of a series of prepared statements echoing what delegations have been saying in the negotiations. No minister made any attempt even to edge towards compromise, even though they had been urged to do so before the meeting.

Nor did the chair attempt to encourage a dialogue, or to explore possible compromises. The presiding minister was UAE Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, who will chair the Abu Dhabi Ministerial Conference.

UPDATES: expanding the WTO intellectual property waiver for COVID-19

---

If you are following this blog, please note that
WordPress does not send out alerts for updates, only for new posts.
To see updates, follow me on Twitter or Mastodon or check back here periodically.

---

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED OCTOBER 4, 2022 | UPDATED AS INDICATED

The waiver on patent protection for COVID-19 vaccines was agreed at the WTO Ministerial Conference on June 17, 2022. The text with brief explanations is here. The waiver is not an obligation. Countries can choose to suspend certain patent rights if they want.

Much of the work after the Ministerial Conference results from a provision for WTO members to decide within six months (by December 17, 2022) whether or not to expand the waiver to include COVID-19 tests and treatments:

“No later than six months from the date of this Decision, Members will decide on its extension to cover the production and supply of COVID-19 diagnostics and therapeutics”

Background: The original (revised) proposal; the debate; the proposed compromise and analysis.

Updates on the latest developments will be added here, with links to new documents and news items. That will include any notifications from countries changing their laws to apply the waiver. So far there are none.

Key events

• October 31, 2023 — deadlock continues in the intellectual property council after an information session with stakeholders
• October 23–24, 2023 — discussed by capital-based senior officials: positions are unchanged
• March and May, 2023 — discussed in the General Council but no new deadline set
• December 20, 2022 — the General Council agrees on postponing the deadline with no date set, but to be reconsidered in the Spring
• December 19, 2022 — the General Council postpones a decision on postponing the deadline
• December 17, 2022 — deadline for expansion decision missed, so far no country has moved to use the vaccine patent waiver agreed in June
• December 16, 2022 — formal meeting: chair’s draft binned, replaced by short paragraph postponing the deadline
• December 7, 2022 — chair’s draft factual report circulated
• December 6, 2022 — informal meeting discusses proponents’ draft and postponing deadline
• December 5–6, 2022 — US announces it will need time to consult stakeholders
• November 2, 2022 — informal meeting, with members’ positions on expanding the waiver to tests and treatments crystallised into three groups
• July 6, 2022 — first meeting after the vaccine patent waiver decision, followed by stock-taking and informal meetings

(TRIPS = trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights, the official description of intellectual property issues that are discussed in the WTO — they should be “trade-related” issues)

A bit of bother down at the WTO court — Why? And is it a killer? Long read

This looks at the WTO Appellate Body crisis in some depth.
A simpler version is here
.
See also:
How the WTO deals with problem trade measures—it’s not just dispute settlement and The WTO is surprisingly busy — considering it’s supposed to be dead

---

Skip the updates

UPDATES

July 28, 2023 — By now, 130 WTO members (80% of the membership) were calling for Appellate Body judges to be appointed, but in the July 28, 2023 meeting the US refused for the 67th time to join consensus (see agenda). Go to the May 17, 2023 paper; WTO documents search for all versions (including possible newer ones with additional sponsors).

January 26, 2022 — Brazil moved to authorise (under Brazilian law) unilateral action against countries that lose in a panel ruling and appeal “into the void” to leave a dispute inconclusive.

Legal opinion seems to be that this could violate WTO rules, but so long as the Appellate Body was unable to function, Brazil could also appeal “into the void” any legal challenge in the WTO. “In the absence of the Appellate Body, this does not seem totally bonkers,” tweeted law professor Geert Van Calster

News of the move came from Tatiana Palermo, President of Palermo Strategic Consulting and a former Brazilian vice-minister and negotiator, who tweeted:

“Brazil’s President Bolsonaro has signed an executive order allowing #Brazil to retaliate unilaterally ([including] suspending IPR [intellectual property rights] obligations) in cases where the losing party appealed the #WTO panel ruling into the void & continues with unfair trade practices.”

The executive order is here, in Portuguese.

---

October 26, 2021 — María Pagán, the Biden administration’s nominee ambassador to the WTO, told a US Senate Finance Committee hearing on her nomination that the US does want to “restore the Appellate Body”, a point that had never been clarified since the Trump administration blocked the appointment of appeals judges:

“I think there’s consensus that the WTO, and particularly the Appellate Body, need to be reformed. I guess on the other hand, we all have different views of what reform means, and particularly with respect to the Appellate Body. What we want, and if confirmed what I will work hard to do, is to have conversations so that we can restore the Appellate Body and the dispute settlement system to what we thought we had agreed to.”

To underscore that this is an official position, Henry Hodge, spokesperson of the Office of the US Trade Representative, tweeted Bloomberg’s story on the statement with the headline “Biden’s nominee to WTO wants to restore Appellate-Body function.”

Pagán’s remark came on the day the US blocked the appointment of appeals judges for the 47th time at a WTO meeting in Geneva. It was the first sign of any new thinking in Washington. But it was too late for anything to happen in time for the November 30 to December 3 Ministerial Conference.

Trade lawyer Simon Lester said the remark is “positive” but that restoring the system “to what we thought we had agreed to” may prove to be “tricky”, a point Pagán herself acknowledged.

---

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED AUGUST 21, 2019 | UPDATED AUGUST 12, 2023

A casual glance at the headlines might have misled us into thinking the World Trade Organization (WTO) would grind to a halt at the end 2019, that the blame lay entirely with US President Donald Trump, and that the WTO’s demise would bring anarchy to world trade.

Only the last of those three assertions is possibly correct; and only if the WTO really does die — which it certainly won’t, not in the near future.

This is an attempt at an explanation. It shows that even WTO dispute settlement could well survive, but in a less powerful form. Other important work in the WTO will continue, and therefore so will the WTO itself.

But be warned: simple explanations of complex issues cannot tell the whole story. And even this attempt is not that simple. Sorry.

By Christmas 2019 the WTO was supposed to be dead — why wasn’t it? A short explanation

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED AUGUST 21, 2019 | UPDATED AUGUST 12, 2023

This short explanation skims the surface of some pretty complicated issues. If you want more detail, with more links and references,
then try this longer version
.
See also:
How the WTO deals with problem trade measures—it’s not just dispute settlement and The WTO is surprisingly busy — considering it’s supposed to be dead

Updates:
Brazil moves to act unilaterally, and the Biden administration signals for the first time it is willing to discuss restoring the Appellate Body

By mid 2023, 130 WTO members (80% of the membership) were calling for Appellate Body judges to be appointed, but by July 28, 2023 the US had refused 67 times to join consensus (see agenda).
The May 17, 2023 paper; WTO documents search for all versions

The doom-mongers had already written off the WTO. From December no new appeals in WTO disputes would be possible and the whole organisation would grind to a halt, they claimed. They were wrong.

The problem is with the appeals stage of WTO legal disputes. Some countries are finding ways to work around that. WTO disputes cannot be the same without a properly functioning Appellate Body, but they can continue even if the system is weaker.

As for the rest of the WTO’s work, it does not rely on dispute settlement. True, member countries participate in those functions more confidently if they know the disputes system is working well, but it will still take years before they lose confidence so badly that they give up on the WTO altogether.

Second bite — how simple is the UK-WTO relationship post-Brexit?

The first bite at the cherry is here

---

By Peter Ungphakorn
POSTED AUGUST 17, 2016 | UPDATED AUGUST 20, 2016

Since the June 23, 2016 referendum, the debate about the UK’s post-Brexit status in the World Trade Organization has become more intense.

Back in March, AgraEurope’s first and detailed look at it attracted little attention (part 1 and part 2 are for subscribers; additional facts, free to view).

WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo’s comments before the referendum did raise a few eyebrows — but not much.

IN THIS ARTICLE

ASSUMPTIONS SCRUTINISED
● Nothing simple: UK revising commitments, some transposed from EU’s | tough negotiations to keep entitlements to protect agriculture | current EU commitments not known | trade continues but possible disruptions

● Not complicated (one or several of these): “let’s be Singapore” — UK to be a free unilateral free trader (easier WTO talks) | “we need you” — other WTO members willing to accommodate UK’s demands in order to keep trading | “call my bluff” — little risk of legal challenge so UK has legal grounds to go ahead and submit its own WTO terms

● Even more complicated (one or both): “the blank paper” — UK renegotiates everything from scratch, nothing transposed automatically from EU | “accession route” — UK negotiates new commitments as if a new WTO member

PLUS What Azevêdo said

All that has changed. Demand has risen for what is now part of a special report for AgraEurope subscribers, and a debate has developed in academic and media comment, and on social media.